Hollywood’s biggest night, the Academy Awards, is the yearly spectacle for dramatic speeches, fashion risks, and shocking upsets. This year’s Oscars are generating plenty of buzz, with some surprising and record-breaking nominations making waves in the industry. Welcome to CableTV.com’s Oscar predictions for 2025.
Rather than trying to get inside the Academy’s mysterious mind, we took a more fun approach—digging into 25 years of the award show’s history. Our goal was to spot patterns in genres, demographics, and even zodiac signs to make some lighthearted winner educated guesses.
Are you gearing up for your favorite awards show? Let’s look into the Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress nominations to give you our guesses for who will take home the gold this year.
Best Picture analysis and predictions
As we take a look at past Best Picture winners, a few trends start to pop up across major categories like genre and maturity ratings. Dig a little deeper, and you’ll notice some other interesting tidbits, like the overwhelming dominance of male directors and the surprising rarity of franchise films.
Trends in past Best Picture winners (2000–2024)
- Dramas and thrillers reign supreme: 60% of Best Picture winners since 2000 have been dramas (like Nomadland, 12 Years a Slave, and The King’s Speech), while 24% of winners have been thrillers (such as Parasite, No Country for Old Men, and Spotlight).
- No horror movie has won Best Picture in the last 25 years: If the dark body-horror film The Substance pulls off a win, it won’t just break the mold—it’ll ooze right through it.
- Male directors dominate: 88% of winners had a male director. Katheryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, Chloe Zhao for Nomadland, and Sian Heder for CODA are the exceptions.
- The Bechdel Test is hit or miss: Less than half of the previous winners pass the test, which requires two named female characters to talk to each other about something other than a man. Note: This test might point out gender inequality, but can’t be used as a measure of a movie’s quality.
- R-rated films win more often: 72% of winners had an R rating, which indicates the Academy prefers more mature themes.
- Franchise films rarely win: Only The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2004) has won as part of a film franchise—meaning the Academy seems to prefer singular, standalone films.
Best Picture predicted winner: A Complete Unknown
If we’re going purely based on the patterns we’ve seen in past winners, this year’s Best Picture could very well go to a film that ticks most of the boxes. A Complete Unknown is a standalone drama with a male director and an R rating—pretty much the checklist for a typical Best Picture winner.
Best Picture alternative prediction: The Substance
If the Academy wants to break trends (as they did with Everything Everywhere All at Once), this could be the dark horse. The Substance is the only horror movie nominated and the only film nominated with a female director. Coralie Fargeat also earned a nomination for Best Director, making her the ninth woman to receive this honor.
Oscar Predictions 2025 – Honorable mention: Emilia Pérez
If you’re more of a betting type, you might be better off picking the film that has received 13 Oscar nominations this year, including Best Picture and Best Director. Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez already won Best Motion Picture—Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes, though Anora’s been gaining considerable momentum in recent weeks.
Best Actor analysis and predictions
Trends in previous Best Actor winners (2000–2024)
- Nationality: Most Oscar winners in the Best Actor category are from the U.S., but British and Irish actors have also had multiple wins.
- Age: The average age of Best Actor winners is around 47 years old, but there’s a significant range—from 29 (Adrien Brody in 2003) to 83 (Anthony Hopkins in 2021).
- Height: The average height of Best Actor winners is about 5 feet 9 inches tall, though 36% of the previous winners were above 6 feet.
- Hair color: 80% of winners have dark hair.
- Eye color: 52% of Best Actor winners have blue eyes.
- Zodiac sign: Though it’s not a strong correlation, Leo is the zodiac sign with the most Best Actor wins (five wins), followed by a split between Capricorn, Scorpio, and Aries with three wins each.
- First-time nomination wins are less likely: A solid 60% of winners were not first-time nominees. While Brendan Fraser (2023) won with his first nomination, most others, like Daniel Day-Lewis (2008), had multiple nominations before winning.
Best Actor predicted winner: Sebastian Stan
If we’re going off demographics, at 42, American actor Sebastian Stan is within the ideal age range for a Best Actor winner. With a role in The Apprentice, a mature-themed drama/history film, he checks many boxes for the Academy’s preferences. While not a perfect match in every category, he fits the most common traits—plus, he’s a Leo.
Best Actor alternative prediction: Timothée Chalamet
At 29, Timothée Chalamet is on the younger side, but his Capricorn zodiac sign and blue eyes align with past winners. His role as Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown, a drama/music film, fits the genre patterns that have historically performed well. On top of that, he’s the youngest two-time nominee in the category since James Dean.
Best Actress analysis and predictions
Trends in Best Actress winners (2000–2024)
- Nationality: Most Academy winners in the Best Actress category are American, with British and Australian actresses having notable successes.
- Age: The average age of Best Actress winners is around 40 years old, but winners have ranged from as young as 22 (Jennifer Lawrence in 2013) to 64 (Frances McDormand in 2021).
- Height: The average height of Best Actress winners is about 5 feet 5 inches, though several winners like Charlize Theron (2004) and Nicole Kidman (2003) are taller.
- Hair color: 56% of winners have dark hair, but women have more varied hair color among past winners than men.
- Eye color: 52% of Best Actress winners have blue eyes.
- Zodiac Sign: Leo is the most common zodiac sign for Best Actress winners (seven wins), followed by Cancer (four wins), and Libra and Scorpio with three wins each.
- First-time nomination wins are less likely: Around 64% of winners were not first-time nominees. While Michelle Yeoh (2023) won with her first nomination, most others, like Julia Roberts (2001), had multiple nominations before winning.
Best Actress predicted winner: Demi Moore
At 62, Demi Moore is older than the typical Best Actress winner, but she aligns with the common traits in this category more than others: a Scorpio zodiac sign, dark hair, and a solid track record in dramatic roles. Her performance in The Substance, a sci-fi/horror film, fits within a genre that has seen success in recent years. Despite being older than the average winner, her experience and alignment with key traits make her a top contender.
Best Actress alternative prediction: Fernanda Torres
The dark-haired Brazilian actress Fernanda Torres is another strong contender, thanks to her impressive performance in I’m Still Here. Starring in a drama puts her in line genre-wise, but she’s a non-American, first-time nominee.
While our predictions are based on superficial data points rather than actual Academy logic or actor performance, they offer a fun look at the patterns that shape the Oscars. Will history repeat itself, or will 2025 mark a year of surprises? We’ll find out on Sunday, March 2!
How to watch the 2025 Best Picture nominees
With so many movies vying for your attention, it’s easy to miss out on some of the year’s most buzzworthy films. But don’t worry—we’ve got you covered. If you’re prepping for the Oscars and need to catch up, we’ve compiled where to stream or rent each Best Picture nominee.
Whether you’re building your pre-Oscar watchlist or just looking to stay ahead of the conversation, here’s where to watch the nominees:
Where to watch and stream Oscar nominees:
- Anora – Available for rent on Apple TV, Prime Video, and Google Play.
- A Complete Unknown – Exclusively in theaters; no streaming option confirmed yet.
- Conclave – Available with a Peacock subscription and for rent on Apple TV, Prime Video, Google Play, and YouTube.
- Dune: Part Two – Streaming on Netflix and Max. Also available to rent on platforms like Apple TV and Prime Video.
- Emilia Perez – Available with a Netflix subscription.
- I’m Still Here – Available in theaters; no streaming option confirmed yet.
- Nickel Boys – Available with MGM+ subscription.
- The Substance – Stream with a Mubi subscription or rent on digital services.
- Wicked – Available to rent on digital services, including Apple TV and Prime Video.
Methodology
We analyzed data on the past 25 years of Oscar winners in the Best Picture, Best Actress, and Best Actor categories and kept track of the most occurring traits for each category. The data was pulled from a variety of sources including Variety, Deadline, and Wikipedia.
