“I Hated This Movie, Give It An Oscar”: 16 Oscar Predictions for 2026

Oscar predictions are like shooting fish in a Kevlar vest

Welcome to the annual CableTV.com Academy Awards gauntlet, where we attempt the impossible: predicting what voters will do based on logic, vibes, and whoever had the best catering on their press tour. Picking winners should be like shooting fish in a barrel—but the Academy has spent decades armoring itself against common sense. Hence, the Kevlar.

We’ve rounded up the collective (and conflicting) brains of our team to weigh in on this year’s cinematic brawls. We have everyone from our animation expert—who is so certain of a KPop Demon Hunters win she’s essentially retired from watching other nominees—to our Managing Editor, who is busy manifesting a Brazilian dark-horse upset for The Secret Agent.

This year’s race is a beautiful, chaotic mess. We’re looking at Paul Thomas Anderson’s masterpiece One Battle After Another, Brad Pitt going “vroom” in F1, and Timothée Chalamet desperately hoping the third time’s the charm for Marty Supreme.

It’s also a year of contradictions. Our staff consensus? “I basically hated this movie, but the lead was so good I’ll riot if they don’t win.” (Looking at you, Hamnet and If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You). From stanning Amy Madigan’s “clown-faced crone” to debating Jacob Elordi’s “squishy” monster, here are our picks and grievances. Grab your popcorn and let’s dive into the madness.

I’m Not Leaving My Couch For This! NomineesFeature Film Nominees

From career-defining masterpieces to “experts” who only saw one nominee, these are the heavy hitters actually worth their runtimes.

Best Picture — “One Battle After Another”

Paul Thomas Anderson, in my opinion, has never made a bad movie. But this film feels like the culmination of his entire career. You can see elements of “Magnolia,” “Phantom Thread,” and “There Will Be Blood” all over this film. But that’s not why this will win.

The film, although originally starting development in the early 2000s, feels very current. There are themes of white supremacy, female empowerment, and immigration. There is a strong central father-daughter dynamic between Leonardo DiCaprio and Chase Infiniti’s characters, giving it narrative drive and tons of heart. It’s anchored by a phenomenal cast full of top-notch performances. It looks and sounds amazing.

I can keep going. But this film is a masterpiece, period. —Alex Vejar, Junior Sports Writer

Best Picture — “F1”

The Oscar for Best Picture should be the lump sum of all other categories: incredible casting, stunning visuals, a score that moves you, and a compelling story. “F1” packages all of those together and ties them off with a high-octane bow. While the film’s originality makes it a contender, Brad Pitt’s performance is what moves it from “dark horse” to a real threat in the winner’s circle. It’s a long shot in a stacked race, but “F1” reminds us that the best wins are the ones that come from behind. —Craig Stirland, Contributing Writer

Animated Feature Film — “KPop Demon Hunters”

Listen. I might get my Animation Expert card revoked here, but “KPop Demon Hunters” is the only Animated Feature Film nominee I’ve seen this year. But! That doesn’t mean I’m unqualified to judge this category. “KPop Demon Hunters” was a phenomenal film with gorgeous character designs and the innovative animation style that brought so much hype to the “Spider-Verse” series.

Where “KPop Demon Hunters” really shines is in its depiction of women in a very un-Disney-like fashion. Rather than the cookie-cutter heads of Elsa and Anna, the women of HUNTR/X have interesting face shapes and make ugly expressions. It’s the same school of character design that made Pixar’s “Turning Red” so special, and I love that Sony is doing it too.

This also has the side effect of making the tie-in toys cooler and more appealing to kids, and what production company doesn’t like more money? —Olivia Bono, Staff Writer

Best Foreign-Language Film — “The Secret Agent”

The obvious frontrunner for Best Foreign-Language Film is Joachim Tier’s “Sentimental Value.” With Kellan Skarsgård winning the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor and the film winning the Grand Prix at Cannes, a victory seems all but in the bag. Don’t sleep on Wagner Moura and “The Secret Agent,” however, which has become the dark-horse pick.

Yes, thematically, the film falls squarely into forensic-thriller territory like last year’s winner from Brazil, “I’m Still Here.” But “The Secret Agent” unspools a darkly laconic (and surprisingly funny) take on life under military dictatorship. This plays to its star’s strengths (for U.S. audiences, check out his Apple TV dramedy “Dope Thief” for more shenanigans), and with Brazil’s online fandom perennially popping off, it could lead to a major upset. —Mike Strayer, Managing Editor

I’ll Riot If They Lose! Acting Nominees

These performers are the only reason we didn’t change the channel. Give them a statue or face the wrath of our writers.

Actress in a Leading Role — Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”)

As a writer with an English degree and an immense love of Shakespeare—and Maggie O’Farrell’s source novel—I was so sure I was going to adore “Hamnet.” Unfortunately, it fell flat to me. Languishes too much in its own melodrama, knocks the Hamnet = Hamlet comparison over the head, etc., etc.

But this isn’t a review of the film. This is a review of Jessie Buckley’s magnificent performance as Agnes Shakespeare.

Even when I felt like “Hamnet” was being overly intense and melodramatic, Buckley never was. Whenever she was onscreen, you couldn’t take your eyes off her. It felt like she was operating on a different frequency than the film around her, delivering a performance of such raw, guttural grief that it was sometimes hard to handle—and that’s a compliment!

Agnes is the soul of the film, and Jessie Buckley delivers that in spades. Although I’ll be mad if “Hamnet” wins Best Picture, I’ll riot if the statue isn’t Buckley’s. —Logan Jones, Staff Writer

Actor in a Leading Role — Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”)

He didn’t win for “Call Me By Your Name.” He didn’t win for “A Complete Unknown.”

But could Chalamet take his first Oscar for “Marty Supreme”? I think third’s the charm here.

Chalamet delivers a frantic, genuinely electrifying performance in a film about an immature young man who just wants to be a pro table tennis player and doesn’t care who he exploits to get there. It utilizes his charm and underrated gravitas very well. And to top it off, he’s been winning pretty much all the precursor awards.

I think Oscar is Chalamet’s to lose. —Alex Vejar, Junior Sports Writer

Actor in a Leading Role — Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”) or Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”)

As with Jessie Buckley and “Hamnet” (adored her performance, but really disliked the film), “Marty Supreme” was a total miss for me. But Timothée Chalamet—damn. I’ve been a fan for years (even went to a Q&A with him at a “Beautiful Boy” screening back in 2018, a role I totally thought would garner him an Oscar nom), but he’s never killed it like he kills it in “Marty.” I loathed his character, and that’s all thanks to Timmy’s amazing performance. It’s impressive to be so unlikable!

Funnily enough, I also disliked Ethan Hawke’s character (real-life Broadway lyricist Lorenz Hart) in “Blue Moon” for most of the film. Brash, irritating, desperate—a lot like Marty in those aspects. The difference for me, though, was the sympathy I felt while watching “Blue Moon.” I had none for Marty, but so much for Hart. That’s where the nuance in these performances stands out and what pushes Ethan Hawke slightly ahead of Chalamet. Seeing Hawke finally start tearing down the walls Hart had built up—particularly in those intimate moments at the end of the film with Elizabeth (Margaret Qualley)—sealed the Best Actor deal for me.

Regardless of whether Chalamet or Hawke takes home the Oscar, I’ll be pleased—although I am still upset “Blue Moon” didn’t get a Best Picture nom. —Logan Jones, Staff Writer

Actress in a Leading Role — Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You”)

I understand that a lot of people really liked this film. I am not one of them. In fact, I basically hated it.

But here’s the thing: I didn’t hate Bryne’s performance. I thought it was extremely effective and capital-L layered. And that’s really what matters here.

Best Actress is not about the movie, but what the lead did in the movie. And in this film, Byrne is riding the emotional roller coaster at every second. Because of the director’s camera choices, we almost never cut away from her face.

It’s really, really hard to do what Byrne does here. And I’ve long believed that acting Oscars go to performers who run the gamut emotionally in the film and do it not only believably, but also make the audience care. She does that in this film, and more. —Alex Vejar, Junior Sports Writer

Actor in a Supporting Role — Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”)

Between his roles in films like “Malcolm X,” “The Cider House Rules”, and “Da 5 Bloods”, Delroy Lindo’s long been one of our most preeminent character actors. He’s technically a long shot against frontrunners Stellan Skarsgard and Sean Penn, but with “Sinners'” sizable Oscars momentum, we’re rooting for Lindo to get his flowers. Lindo’s performance as harmonica player Delta Slim ballasts “Sinners”‘s fantastical back half, and it’d be a feat if Lindo could pair his first Oscar nomination with a win. —Eric Chiu, Internet Editor

Actor in a Supporting Role — Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”) or Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”)

I know, I know. There can be only one recipient of this award, but it’s a toss-up for me. We have Sean Penn, the legendary talent, and Jacob Elordi, the fresh-faced legend-in-waiting—both nominated for playing monsters.

Penn’s Col. Steven J. Lockjaw is the kind of narcissistic brute we know exists—epidemically—in today’s headlines. Elordi’s “The Creature” is a literal (albeit fantastical) monstrosity, a terrifying but ultimately endearing behemoth with a squishy core. Both actors bring palpable intensity to their performances; it feels like they could jump off the screen and rip us to shreds.

If forced to choose, I’d go with Elordi. Penn’s had a long career, and he’s got accolades coming out of his ears. However, the younger actor achieved something amazing with “The Creature.” Ninety-five years after James Whale’s “Frankenstein” (1931), Elordi elevated the role far beyond Boris Karloff’s iconic—but in retrospect, rather tame—turn, charging Mary Shelley’s tragic monster with fresh electricity and renewed terror. To me, that’s an Oscar-worthy feat.

But if Penn wins, I get it. His masterclass in corruption is a more than worthy alternative. —Randy Harward, Senior Staff Writer

Actress in a Supporting Role — Amy Madigan (“Weapons”)

In Zach Cregger’s witchy tale, Amy Madigan (“Uncle Buck,” “Antlers”) steals the show as Gladys, the clown-faced crone who abducts 17 elementary school kids. Madigan inhabits Gladys like a second skin, poofing into dreams, rooms, forests, or onto your doorstep and variously radiating quirky sunshine (“I don’t even try to rationalize it anymore”), weaponizing helplessness, or exuding a casual evil that can morph instantly into a vibe so baleful you wanna pee a little (“I can make them eat each other if I want to”).

“Weapons” deserved more than one Oscar nomination, but at least the Academy noticed Madigan’s magically horrifying performance. —Randy Harward, Senior Staff Writer

Prestige Earworms: Music Awards

Because nothing says “high art” like a score that makes your heart race and a song that makes you rethink your entire life.

Best Original Score — Jonny Greenwood (“One Battle After Another”)

While Ludwig Göransson is a strong contender for “Sinners,” I think Jonny Greenwood has the edge in the race for Best Original Score. His music for “One Battle After Another” is a masterclass in pacing, providing the kinetic energy that makes Paul Thomas Anderson’s 162-minute epic fly by without a single drag. Göransson’s work is undeniable, but Greenwood’s compositions feel a bit more memorable.

It also feels like the right moment for the Academy to finally recognize the Radiohead lead guitarist. After earning nominations for “Phantom Thread” and “The Power of the Dog,” he’s still chasing that elusive win. This looks like the year voters reward one of the most quirky, adrenaline-pumping film scores. —Taylor Kujawa, Sports Editor

Best Original Song — Raphael Saadiq, Ludwig Göransson (“I Lied to You” from “Sinners”)

If Göransson doesn’t win Best Original Score for “Sinners,” I think we’ll see him and Tony! Toni! Toné! member Raphael Saadiq take home the Oscar for Best Original Song. Sorry, “KPop Demon Hunters” fans. That’s just how these things work. “I Lied to You” is the kind of haunting ballad that gives the film its emotional backbone, bridging the gap between classic R&B warmth and contemporary sonic architecture.

The biggest hurdle here is the meta-narrative of Diane Warren, who’s nominated for a song about her own legendary losing streak. But I’m betting on the sheer craft of “Sinners” to overcome the sentimentality. Despite two wins for Best Original Score (“Black Panther” and “Oppenheimer”), Göransson has never won in the songwriting category. —Taylor Kujawa, Sports Editor

The Technicalities (aka The “Bathroom Break” Awards)

From beetle-inspired gowns to sound design that vibrates your teeth, here are the crafts that actually make the movie.

Best Casting — Cassandra Kulukundis (“One Battle After Another”)

Because this is the inaugural year for the Best Casting category, we don’t yet know if voters will treat it as a companion to the acting awards or as a place to recognize large ensembles. If it’s the former, “One Battle After Another” is the clear frontrunner, boasting nominations in three of the four acting categories. While the film’s heavy hitters (Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro, and Teyana Taylor) all secured nods, the film’s most impressive feat might be the one performance that went unrecognized: the breakout turn of Chase Infiniti.

Although snubbed for Best Actress, Infiniti is the secret weapon of “One Battle After Another.” Her discovery ended a six-year search spanning karate dojos and dance crews, culminating in a raw gym audition that captured her unique mix of innocence and lethal aggression. By voting for Kulukundis here, the Academy can indirectly honor the massive effort it took to find a newcomer capable of going toe-to-toe with Hollywood’s biggest legends. —Taylor Kujawa, Sports Editor

Best Sound — “F1”

Sometimes, winning an Oscar means just having the most of something in your film. And “F1” certainly has a ton of sound.

I watched this in an IMAX theater and was blown away by how tactile the sound is. Every racing moment packs a punch. The score swells. And it’s a masterclass of what it means to design sound that feels like you’re riding next to Brad Pitt. — Alex Vejar, Junior Sports Writer

Costume Design — Kate Hawley, “Frankenstein”

I was so relieved to see that “Wicked: For Good” wasn’t nominated for this category (or really, any other). I loved the stage musical and the first film, but the second one was a total flop—especially in the costume department. Even ignoring Elphaba’s infamous cardigan, Glinda’s gowns left a lot to be desired.

Meanwhile, “Frankenstein” understood the assignment. Elizabeth—who thankfully isn’t Victor’s cousin/sister/wife in this one—has the best gowns. She’s fascinated by insects and beautiful, unsettling creatures, so the whole movie she dresses like a brightly colored beetle. She becomes an object of fascination that Victor wants to keep as a trophy, like the way she collects bug corpses.

In the end of the movie (spoilers), Elizabeth’s wedding gown becomes a beautiful funeral shroud. The final scene between the Creature and Elizabeth has already become so visually iconic, and it’s due mostly to the way the gorgeous white fabric soaks up the red blood. Red is a big color in the film—it was Victor’s mother’s color, and he started wearing it after her death—and it haunts the narrative more than any gothic monster could. —Olivia Bono, Staff Writer